Black Friday: Expect Flat Discounts But Rising Prices This Holiday Season.
Prepare For Consumer Affordability Pressure As Average Selling Prices Climb Seven Percent While Discount Rates Stagnate.
Online Discount Rates Remained Flat at Twenty-Eight Percent
Online discount rates remained flat on Black Friday 2025 compared to 2024, with average discount rates peaking at 28% in the U.S. and 27% globally according to Salesforce data reported by Marketing Dive on November 29, 2025. The stagnation reflects retailer reluctance to deepen promotional intensity despite declining consumer sentiment and continued inflation pressure.
In the electronics category, peak discounts online Friday in the U.S. hit 29% off the listed price compared to 30.1% in 2024, per Adobe Analytics data. Toys discounts peaked at 30% versus 28% last year, televisions were nearly flat at 24.3% versus 24.2%, and furniture held at 19%. Gartner Analyst Brad Jashinsky noted in emailed comments that "most of the affordable specialty apparel retailers offered the same large percentage off deals for the 2025 Black Friday weekend as they did in 2024."
U.S. e-commerce sales hit $11.8 billion on Black Friday, marking a 9.1% year-over-year increase per Adobe Analytics, while Salesforce found online Black Friday U.S. sales grew 3% to $18 billion. However, these top-line growth numbers masked underlying consumer pressure as average selling prices increased 7% while online order volume dropped 1% year over year according to Salesforce.
Average Selling Prices Increased Seven Percent Year Over Year
Average selling prices for goods climbed 7% on Black Friday 2025 according to Salesforce data, creating affordability pressure for consumers despite nominal sales growth. Caila Schwartz, director of consumer insights at Salesforce, stated: "Black Friday delivered an important signal for the U.S. economy. On the surface, sales were strong, hitting $18 billion, a 3% jump year-over-year. But with the average selling price for goods climbing 7%, U.S. shoppers continued to feel the bite of inflation."
The price increases combined with flat discount rates meant consumers paid higher net prices for products compared to 2024 despite similar percentage-off promotional messaging. This dynamic explains why online order volume dropped 1% and units per transaction fell 2% year over year according to Salesforce—consumers bought fewer items per shopping session as affordability constraints tightened.
CI&T Global Director of Retail Strategy and Insights Melissa Minkow told Marketing Dive that "it's pretty much the deal levels and discount levels that retailers have been offering on various products throughout the year," suggesting that Black Friday no longer represents a uniquely promotional event but rather an extension of year-round discount patterns that have diluted the shopping holiday's traditional urgency.
AI Traffic to Retail Sites Surged Eight Hundred Five Percent
AI traffic to U.S. retail websites grew 805% compared to 2024 on Black Friday per Adobe's data, with AI tools used most for video games, appliances, electronics, toys, personal care, and baby product categories. Shoppers who landed on U.S. retail sites from an AI service were 38% more likely to convert to a sale versus non-AI traffic sources according to Adobe Analytics.
Salesforce found that traffic from third-party AI agent channels increased 300% in the first half of Black Friday compared to last year both globally and in the U.S., with $3 billion in U.S. online sales driven by AI and agents during the day. For customer service, agentic service conversations on Black Friday grew 42% compared to Thanksgiving per Salesforce.
The AI adoption surge signals fundamental shifts in product discovery and purchase behavior. Consumers increasingly use conversational AI to research products, compare prices, and identify deals rather than navigating traditional retail websites or search engines. Retailers optimizing for AI-driven traffic—providing structured product data, clear specifications, and competitive pricing that AI agents can easily parse—captured disproportionate share of this growing channel.
Target's Exclusive Giveaway Strategy Drove Morning Store Traffic
Retailers offering exclusive gifts and freebies in stores succeeded at differentiation when many competitors offered similar discounts on similar products according to Circana Chief Retail Advisor Marshal Cohen's observations reported by Marketing Dive. "What we saw [Friday] was the only stores that were really busy early in the morning, was basically Target," Cohen stated.
Target offered a free limited-edition tote bag filled with giveaways to the first 100 guests in line at stores on Friday, while Lowe's gave away a bucket with products to the first 50 customers along with a chance to win an in-stock appliance up to $2,000. These exclusive perks provided shoppers a reason to visit specific retailers versus competitors when promotional pricing alone failed to create differentiation.
Cohen noted that "a lack of merchandising newness may have dampened the interest and excitement from shoppers" on Black Friday 2025 as many of the hottest products remained similar to last year's. In this environment, exclusive giveaways created artificial scarcity and urgency that discount percentages alone could not generate, driving early-morning foot traffic that many retailers struggled to attract.
Store Traffic Data Shows Mixed Results Across Measurement Firms
Measuring store traffic produced conflicting signals depending on data source and methodology. Early data from RetailNext—collected from tens of thousands of U.S. stores across hundreds of brands operating on its smart store platform—found that in-store traffic on Black Friday was down 3.6% compared to 2024.
Joe Shasteen, RetailNext's global manager of advanced analytics, stated in emailed comments: "The headline isn't the drop in traffic, it's what it confirms. The era of the impulse holiday spree is ending. Consumers are in control, and they're treating Black Friday as one data point in a much longer hunt for value." However, AI retail insights company Passby found the U.S. market saw a 1.17% year-over-year increase in store traffic based on 53 million analyzed visits.
The conflicting data reflects methodology differences—RetailNext measures stores on its platform while Passby analyzes broader foot traffic patterns. The divergence also suggests that traffic shifted between retailers rather than growing or declining uniformly, with winners (like Target with exclusive giveaways) capturing share from competitors offering undifferentiated promotional intensity.
Buy Now Pay Later Usage Increased Nine Percent Year Over Year
Buy now, pay later usage on Black Friday was up 8.9% year-over-year, driving $747.5 million in online spend per Adobe Analytics. The financing option was most utilized when shopping on mobile devices, which drove 80.7% share usage versus desktop according to Adobe data.
Circana's Cohen told Marketing Dive: "There may not be as many gifts, but they're going to spend as much as they can possibly spend, and worry about it in 2026. That's to be continued at another time. That's the big story of what's going to happen post holiday as the consumer has to navigate all of this extended credit that they've utilized."
The BNPL growth signals consumer affordability pressure—shoppers are splitting payments to manage cash flow constraints rather than paying upfront. While BNPL drives short-term sales for retailers, the deferred payment structure creates risk if consumers struggle with repayment in early 2026, potentially dampening Q1 spending as payment obligations come due on holiday purchases made through installment financing.
Black Friday Evolved Into Multi-Day Event With Diluted Urgency
"The Black Friday that we have come to know and love has changed," Circana's Cohen told Marketing Dive. The shopping event has evolved from a singular day of doorbuster deals into a multi-day event with extended savings periods that reduce purchase urgency and complicate year-over-year performance measurement.
CI&T's Minkow noted: "I think it's too fluid and too confusing at this point to limit Black Friday to just one day given how frequently consumers are being offered deals." A clearer picture will emerge as numbers come out from the full Thanksgiving week and Cyber Monday period, though year-over-year comparisons remain challenging given that 2024 was an election year when retail sales historically dampen.
The multi-day evolution benefits consumers who can shop on their schedules rather than competing for doorbusters at 5am, but dilutes retailer ability to drive concentrated traffic and create inventory urgency that justifies promotional discounting. The shift also complicates marketing measurement and budget allocation—if Black Friday spans a week, should media spending concentrate on the named day or distribute across the extended promotional window?
Recommendations
Prepare Marketing Budgets For Higher Cost-Per-Acquisition In 2026: Plan for elevated customer acquisition costs as 7% price increases and flat discounts create affordability pressure requiring deeper promotional investment to drive conversion.
Optimize Product Data For AI Agent Discovery And Comparison: Structure product specifications, pricing, and availability information for easy parsing by conversational AI tools driving 805% traffic growth to retail sites.
Create Exclusive In-Store Incentives Beyond Price Discounting: Develop limited-quantity giveaways and experiential perks that differentiate your stores when competitors offer similar percentage-off promotions on similar products.
Monitor BNPL Penetration As Leading Indicator Of Affordability Stress: Track buy now pay later usage rates as early warning signal of consumer financial pressure that may dampen Q1 spending when deferred payments come due.
Extend Black Friday Marketing Across Full Thanksgiving Week: Distribute promotional messaging and media spending across multi-day shopping period rather than concentrating budgets on single-day Black Friday investment.
Bottom Line: Sales Growth Masked Consumer Affordability Crisis That Will Intensify.
Black Friday 2025 generated $18 billion in U.S. online sales representing 3% year-over-year growth according to Salesforce, but this nominal increase concealed deteriorating consumer purchasing power as average selling prices climbed 7% while discount rates remained flat at 28%—meaning shoppers paid higher net prices despite similar promotional messaging. Online order volume dropped 1% and units per transaction fell 2% year over year, demonstrating that consumers bought fewer items as affordability constraints tightened even during the year's most promotional shopping period. The 8.9% increase in buy now pay later usage driving $747.5 million in spend signals that consumers are splitting payments to manage cash flow rather than paying upfront, creating deferred financial pressure that may dampen Q1 2026 spending when installment obligations come due on holiday purchases.
AI traffic to retail sites surged 805% with shoppers arriving from AI services converting 38% more frequently than non-AI sources, indicating fundamental shifts in product discovery that require retailers to optimize structured data and competitive pricing for conversational agent parsing rather than traditional search engine optimization.
Target's exclusive tote bag giveaway for the first 100 store visitors drove concentrated morning traffic while competitors offering only percentage-off discounts struggled with foot traffic down 3.6% according to RetailNext data, proving that differentiation through exclusive perks outperforms undifferentiated promotional intensity when product newness disappoints.
Circana's Cohen summarized the consumer dilemma: shoppers will "spend as much as they can possibly spend, and worry about it in 2026"—a strategy that drives short-term retail sales while building financial pressure that will constrain spending in early 2026 when credit card bills and BNPL installments come due on purchases made during a holiday season where rising prices and flat discounts forced consumers to choose between buying less or deferring payment consequences.
